“28-point Peace Pact”
Sad to analyze this leaked “peace plan” for you. What surprises me the most, actually, is how poorly this 28-point plan is compiled, not to mention that it seems to be translated from Russian and is written in “broken English.” Even more so, the writers should understand that it is programmed to fail and cannot be executed, not only due to a lack of any reasonable political will but also because it is not doable even in theory. And I am not only talking about violating 71 international laws and agreements, according to the legal analysis of Estonian MP Eerik-Niiles Kross.
Let me go through the examples.
2. A full and comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine, and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled.
▪️ So Ukraine should never claim back the lands that are currently occupied and would, according to this “peace plan,” be only de facto Russian territory? Let me also remind you that Georgia and Moldova are parts of Europe, and Russian troops are still on their soil. Should Russia be gifted 20% of Georgia as a bonus as well?
Btw. this sounds like a direct translation from Russian where “ambiguities settled” sounds more natural. (“все спорные вопросы будут считаться урегулированными”). There are at least 15 this type of direct translations from expressions native to Russian, not to English.
5 and 6. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees. The size of Ukraine’s Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel.
▪️ What are those guarantees? And it is a total contradiction, as we saw from the Budapest Memorandum and the Minsk Agreements. Guarantees can only mean that Ukraine has enough resources to defend itself, not that its capabilities are limited.
7. Ukraine will enshrine in its Constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO will adopt a provision stating that Ukraine will not be admitted at any time in the future.
▪️ NATO aspiration is in the Constitution of Ukraine, and changing it requires a majority of votes in Parliament and a nationwide referendum in Ukraine. There is no way to get support for either of them. According to the latest polling by SOCIS, 64% of Ukrainians support joining NATO, and only 33% would be willing to compromise on it. Meanwhile, amending the statute of NATO also requires unanimous support by all member states and their parliaments + 2/3 of the U.S. Senate, which is not going to happen.
8. NATO will not deploy its troops in Ukraine.
▪️ Why would it, if Ukraine will not be a member of NATO? There is no such thing as “NATO troops”; there are troops of NATO member states. And the deployment of troops from some countries is not completely excluded.
9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.
▪️And the sun rises in the East. There are already NATO forces in Poland. Or are there some additional agreements regarding Poland? If it is meant that U.S. forces will be replaced by European forces, then it should be said so. But in any case, it is up to NATO, Poland, and Europe, not to the U.S.
10d. If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, US security guarantees will be deemed invalid.
▪️ This is “my favourite.” What does “without a cause firing” even mean? What could be a relevant “cause”? And if any of Russia’s “green men” were to shoot a missile at Moscow, in whatever geographic direction, would that be a reason to cancel whatever guarantees (unclarified in the 28-point plan)? By the way, are drones in Belgorod then OK, or missiles at Oryol?
11. Ukraine may apply for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market pending review.
▪️ This can be granted only by the EU, and can we define “preferential access”?
13. The United States will enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement for mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, rare earth metal extraction projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.
▪️ What about this clause, when Russia would choose to breach the “peace agreement”, would this “long-term co-operation continue”?
13. Russia will be invited to return to the G8.
▪️ I very much doubt the other G6 would agree.
14. European frozen assets will be unfrozen.
▪️ This is for the EU to decide, as almost 200 billion is in Brussels Euroclear, and I see no intent or joy over the unfreezing idea.
14. $100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine; The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the amount of investment available for Ukraine’s reconstruction.
So Europe will invest 100 billion so that the US can get half of the profits generated. What a deal. Europe would hesitantly pass on that.
16. Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine.
Really? Russian autocrat who has started 5 wars in the last decades “gives his word”? Like he gave to Chechnya, when signing a peace treaty or in the Budapest Memorandum? Putin can change it in a day. Btw, again, who would say “enshrine in law”? It is again a direct translation of something that is commonly used in Russian (“закрепить в законе”).